"None shall rule but the humble..."
--Ralph Waldo Emerson, "Boston Hymn," 1863.



featuring:


..The Swami's Playoff Picks.





This Week...
The Swami returns from chilly Connecticut...
Hey, don't miss the Swami's review of Denver-Fairfield coming later this week...
There are no barns left in the state of Connecticut after last weekend. The Swami has the whole story.

The NCAA Playoffs...
The NCAA will announce the results of its Division I Men's Lacrosse selections on Sunday, May 8, 2005 at 9:30 PM live on ESPNews. You can listen to this program live over the Internet HERE. The teams look like they will all be seeded this year, in contrast to some seasons in the past. The first round of the games will begin on the weekend of May 14th and 15th at the home of the higher seed. That means team #1 will likely play team #16, team #2 will likely face team #15, etc. After the first round, only eight teams will remain and they will play at two regional sites: Johns Hopkins and Princeton University. When the field is whittled down to four, the games move to Philadelphia on Memorial Day Weekend.


Who selects the teams?...
The NCAA's Division I Lacrosse Committee will select and seed all teams. This committee is composed of Chairman Jon Hind (Butler), Mike Pressler (Duke), Bill Tierney (Princeton), Scott Marr (Albany), and Wayne Edwards (Towson). Members are required to absent themselves during discussion of their teams.


What is the selection process?...
The NCAA seems to have given the following guidance to the committee:

To choose and rank the playoff teams on the basis of: win/loss records against teams in descending order of RPI ranking, a team's RPI adjusted for its top ten opponents, a team's total seasonal RPI, then several secondary criteria including head-to head competition, common opponent success/failure, and other measures. None of the criteria is what the Swami would consider anywhere near objectively definitive.

All teams chosen for the playoffs must play at least 10 games against Division I opponents, and at-large selectees must have .500 or better records.

What is left unsaid is exactly how far down in the RPI rankings that analysis of teams extends (#15-20?, #45-50?), and exactly how these teams will be evaluated in terms of wins against those brackets (will a team with a 1-0 record against top ten competition be considered above a team that is 3-1 because of its higher win percentage? Or is a record of 4-1 [.750] preferable to a record of 1-0 [1.000])?

This is where the disagreements begin.

Please note what is absent from this directive:

1.) Quality losses ("they lost to all highly ranked teams");

2.) Narrow losses ("they only lost by a single goal");

3.) Conference standing ("how can they go if they finished fifth in their own conference?"); and, finally,

4.) Quotas ("how can they have so many teams from the same conference?"). In what might be one of the more delightful ironies of the season, this word has come to be associated with the prospective selection of Ivy League lacrosse teams.

5.) Pairings. In the past the NCAA has made specific statements regarding the pairing of teams, most notably that the committee could take travel, regional rivalries, and other non-statistical factors into consideration. The Swami could find no mention of such criteria this season.


The Swami's process...
The Swami uses Hymie's RPI calculations (HERE) in preference to others.

Fans have noticed slight differences in the RPI computations of the several sites that offer them. While the Swami is not privy to the various formulae, the Swami guesses that the differences are accounted for by two variations. The first is the calculation of strength of schedule.

There are two approaches to SOS. The first is to calculate a team's schedule in advance of the season and assign a strength to each team which varies each week with the relative performance of that team. A variation of that is to only count a game played after it is played. The former method is problematical, not the least because of cancelled games (like Delaware at Yale this season). The Swami prefers not to count the games until after they are played. Hymie's calculations use the method the Swami prefers.

The second reason for variations may be the idea of counting a team's own record in its opponents' opponents' records. This is best illustrated by example. Hopkins' RPI is calculated based on its record, its opponents' record, and its opponent's opponents' record. Since Navy played Hopkins, Navy's record is computed in Hopkins' RPI. And Hopkins played Maryland, so Hopkins record is computed in Maryland's RPI. But Navy also played Maryland. Maryland is therefore one of Hopkins' opponent's opponents as well as being a direct opponent of Hopkins. Should the Hopkins victory over Maryland, as reflected in Navy's RPI, be reflected back to Hopkins through the record of Navy's opponents? The Swami thinks not. The NCAA's first sport to undergo a completely mathematical selection process is hockey, making the hockey stats somewhat more verifiable than lacrosse. It seems as if the subject team's record is eliminated from the record of opponent's opponents in hockey. So, the Swami applies that to lacrosse also. It should be pointed out, however, that the inclusion or elimination of this statistic is quite watered down by the applicable percentages in the end. Nevertheless, Hymie's calculations also are preferable to the Swami in that regard.

The Swami developed the accompanying charts using Hymie's statistics.

TOP RPI TEAMS:

RANK
TEAM
RPI
1 Hopkins 72.19
2 Virginia 65.88
3 Duke 65.83
4 Maryland 65.61
5 Navy 62.61
6 Towson 61.21
7 UMass 61.20
8 Syracuse 60.70
9 Georgetown 60.52
10 Cornell 59.89
11 Army 58.94
12 Penn State 57.83
13 North Carolina 57.40
14 Notre Dame 57.25
15 Delaware 56.91
16 Albany 56.76
17 Hofstra 55.77
18 Fairfield 55.19
19 Bucknell 54.01
20 Dartmouth 53.61

In the Swami's opinion, there are no other teams that will merit serious consideration for at-large bids other than the top twenty listed above. If you eliminate the following teams that have automatic berths, and those with losing records, the teams remaining are in the hunt (teams eliminated: North Carolina, Navy, Fairfield, Cornell, Towson, Albany):

RANK
TEAM
RPI
1 Hopkins 72.19
2 Virginia 65.88
3 Duke 65.83
4 Maryland 65.61
5 UMass 61.20
6 Syracuse 60.70
7 Georgetown 60.52
8 Army 58.94
9 Penn State 57.83
10 Notre Dame 57.25
11 Delaware 56.91
12 Hofstra 55.77
13 Bucknell 54.01
14 Dartmouth 53.61

With the following representatives from conferences with automatic bids already having qualified (Navy, Towson, Cornell, Albany, Fairfield, and Marist), and a pre-determined field of 16, that leave 10 spaces. Which four teams above will be eliminated?

RANK
TEAM
1-5
6-10
11-15
TOTAL
1 Hopkins
4-0
2-0
1-0
7-0
2 Virginia
1-3
2-0
1-0
4-3
3 Maryland
2-4
0-2
1-0
3-5
4 Duke
2-2
1-0
3-0
6-2
5 Georgetown
1-1
1-1
1-1
3-3
6 UMass
0-0
2-0
1-1
3-1
7 Syracuse
0-2
0-3
1-0
1-5
8 Army
0-2
1-1
0-0
1-3
9 Delaware
0-0
1-2
0-0
1-2
10 Notre Dame
0-0
0-1
2-0
2-1
11 Penn State
0-1
1-1
0-1
1-3
12 Hofstra
0-1
0-2
2-2
2-5
13 Bucknell
1-1
0-0
0-3
1-3
14 Dartmouth
1-0
0-1
1-0
2-1

The Swami thinks that Notre Dame will be eliminated. The Fighting Irish have only two top 15 wins, and both are against teams ranked near the bottom of the top 15 (North Carolina and Penn State). Those hardly constitute big wins in 2005. The Swami also thinks Hofstra, with top wins over only North Carolina and Delaware (to which Hofstra subsequently lost) will not turn the trick for the Pride. The Swami also thinks that Delaware will be eliminated with a record of 1-2 against top 15 teams. The Swami also notes that Delaware has a better big win record and single higher quality win than does Penn State. Should a choice devolve between those two teams, Delaware, even though slightly behind Penn State in RPI and SOS, should receive the overall higher rating. Among the top twenty teams, Delaware has #7, #16, and #17 wins. Penn State has only #9 and #19 wins.

This is the way the Swami sees the field seeded by the committee (the Swami's opinion follows it), which showed a tendency last season to use the "big win" factor only as an indicator of who should receive invitations, then seemed to seed teams pretty much in line with overall RPI, after making a few small adjustments:

1.) Hopkins--the only undefeated team in Division I goes first.

2.) Duke--a 6-2 record against top 15 teams and good SOS get the Devils the second best spot.

3.) Maryland--2 for 4 against the top 5 is better than Virginia's 1-3 record in the same bracket.

4.) Virginia--the Cavaliers have to go over Navy. With the same best wins as Navy (Maryland and UNC), UVA can also add #6 Towson and #8 Syracuse.

5.) Navy--Navy's big wins over #4, #11 (twice), and #13 will trump Georgetown's wins over #5, #8, and #15, in addition Navy is ranked #5 in RPI vs. #9 for Georgetown and has a higher top ten opponent SOS (64.42 to 62.28).

6.) Towson--the Tigers may be sitting on a #6 RPI, but with best wins over #15 Delaware and #17 Hofstra, that will only carry them so far.

7.) UMass--with a #7 RPI and a record of 3-1 against top 15 teams, UMass will get the #6 spot. Best win is Syracuse.

8.) Syracuse--the Cruisers may be resting on and RPI that is ranked #8, but this is the team that will play havoc with anyone's seeding predictions. Syracuse has a best win over #11 Army and a second best win over (RPI) #16 Albany. Does that mean Army has to go? Let's put it this way: The last team to make the tournament as an at-large selection that did not beat another at-large team that was selected was Harvard in 1996.

9.) Georgetown--the last of the top ten teams with any top five wins.

10.) Army--with an RPI ranked at #11, Army has wins over #10 (Cornell), #17 (Hofstra) and two wins over #19 (Bucknell). Army has lost only to teams ranked #6 or higher at the time of the game.

11.) Cornell--the Big Red are the most overrated team in lacrosse if you go by the USILA Coaches' Poll. With top wins over #8 Syracuse and #14 Notre Dame, Cornell will not rate a top five seeding by a long shot. The big question for Cornell is will its #10 RPI carry it over Dartmouth's bigger victory over #4 Maryland? The Swami thinks it will.

12.) Albany--top wins are #7 UMass and #20 Dartmouth.

13.) Dartmouth--a big win over Maryland carries the (RPI) #20 Greenies into the tournament, but their next best win is #14 Notre Dame.

14.) Bucknell--the Bison (RPI #19) have a sole quality win, but it is over the #5 team.

15.) Fairfield--best wins are over #12 (Penn State) and #14 (Notre Dame).

16.) Marist--(RPI) #39 Marist has a best win over #34 Mt. St. Mary's.

Here's the way the Swami would seed the teams:

1.) Hopkins

2.) Duke

3.) Maryland

4.) Virginia

5.) Navy

6.) UMass

7.) Georgetown

8.) Syracuse

9.) Army

10.) Cornell

11.) Dartmouth

12.) Towson

13.) Albany

14.) Bucknell

15.) Fairfield

16.) Marist

Teams ranked by three different criteria:

#
RPI
Big Win %
SOS
1 Hopkins Hopkins Maryland
2 Virginia Duke Hopkins
3 Duke Virginia Virginia
4 Maryland Maryland Syracuse
5 UMass Georgetown Duke
6 Syracuse UMass Hofstra
7 Georgetown Bucknell Georgetown
8 Army Dartmouth Navy
9 Penn State Army Rutgers
10 Notre Dame Delaware Army
11 Delaware Penn State Notre Dame
12 Hofstra Syracuse Penn State
13 Bucknell Hofstra Delaware
14 Dartmouth Notre Dame UMass

From Wombat
Wombat breaks out the abacus... predicting the 2005 NCAA D1 Tourney field...
WOMBAT'S PLAYOFF SCENARIOS AND ANALYSIS
Well, there is no goofing around this time of year here in the Wombat Zone. Here is where Wombat and Swami go head-to-head, predicting how the brackets will be filled out by the Tournament Selection Committee.

Here goes! First, if you read Laxpower.com's guidelines for how the selection is done, you will see that RPI matters. The first criteria, in order, is RPI records versus teams ranked in the RPI 1 to 5, followed by RPI 6-10, then RPI 11-15, and then RPI 16-20. What this really boils down to is the way the NCAA codified their usually heavy weighting on a team getting a huge Quality Win over a top ranked team. There have been many years in the past where a single win over a top 5 team has punched a team's ticket into the tourney, and that will happen again this year.

If you create a nice table, like jhu72 has done here, then you will see who has the best high quality wins. There is one difference between what I am doing and what jhu72 is doing. He uses the Wobus RPI rankings, and I use Hymie's RPI calculation page. There are some slight differences but Wobus and Hymie are fairly close to one another.

Remember, there are 10 at large teams to place, and there are six AQs. The six AQs are:

Navy, Patriot; Cornell, Ivy; Albany, AE; Fairfield, GWLL; Towson, CAA; and Marist, MAAC.

So, before we start trying to seed teams, let's determine who the ten at large teams will be, and worry about seeding them and bracketing them later.

Johns Hopkins is the clear #1 seed for the fourth year in a row. Congratulations.

Maryland has the next best set of Top 5 RPI wins, with wins over Duke and Virginia. They also have a pair of 6-10 wins over Georgetown and Towson. Maryland will be at large #2. (But not necessarily the #2 seed)

Duke has Top 5 RPI wins over Virginia and Maryland, but only one 6-10 win which is over Georgetown. Duke is at large #3.

Virginia has one Top 5 win over Maryland, and two 6-10 wins over Syracuse and Towson. UVa gets at large #4.

Georgetown has a Top 5 win over Navy, and a 6-10 win over Syracuse, so the Hoyas get at large #5.

Navy has a Top 5 win over Maryland, but they won the Patriot AQ, so they are in.

Dartmouth has a huge Top 5 win over Maryland, and this is ENOUGH to punch their ticket in. So Dartmouth gets at large #6.

Bucknell has a huge Top 5 win over Navy, and that is also ENOUGH to punch their ticket in to the tourney. So Bucknell gets at large #7.

(REMEMBER, these are not SEEDINGS yet, I am just counting off the ten at large bids.)

That leaves only three at large spots left. Who is going to get those last three spots? Well, the next step is to look at who has wins in the RPI 6 to 10 category. Those teams are:

UMass has wins in the 6-10 RPI over Georgetown and Syracuse. They are the only team with no Top 5 RPI wins that also has TWO Top 6-10 wins. So UMass is going to get in as at large #8.

Cornell and Albany both have wins over 6-10 teams (Cornell over SU, and Albany over UMass) but these two teams have already claimed AQs. So there are three other teams left that have only one 6-10 RPI win, and they are Delaware, Army and Penn State.

Delaware has a win over Towson who has an RPI of 6 (Hymie) or 7 (Wobus).

Army has a win over Cornell who has an RPI of 10 (Hymie) or 9 (Wobus).

Penn State has a win over Georgetown who has an RPI of 10 (Hymie) or 9 (Wobus).

So, let's look at who has wins in the Top 11-15 RPI category. Delaware has a win over Albany. Army and Penn State have no wins in the 11-15 category. Therefore, Delaware will get the at large #9 spot. Only one at large spot left!

Army and Penn State are in a dead heat for the last spot. Both have only one Top 6-10 RPI win, and no 11-15 RPI wins. It will come down to who has the best 16-20 wins. Penn State has a 16-20 RPI win over Bucknell, but Army has THREE 16-20 RPI wins, with one win over Hofstra and TWO wins over Bucknell. Based on that, Wombat thinks Army will back into the tourney and claim the final at large spot, the #10 at large team.

CONTROVERSY!!! CONTROVERSY!!! Where is Syracuse? Syracuse, with a 7-5 record, and no Top 5 RPI wins, and no Top 6-10 wins, appears to be sitting at home for the first time in 22 years. They are on the bubble the most. If they somehow get in, it will be because the tournament selection committee melded many priorities together and scooted them in.

Obviously, if Army makes it, based on their big win over Cornell, the beef will be that Syracuse beat Army handily, 9-4 in the Dome in the first week of the season. But Syracuse lost by two to Cornell AT HOME, while Army beat Cornell at their own home. So both teams had the chance to beat Cornell with homefield advantage, and Army pulled it off and Syracuse did not. Close losses to a lot of tough teams do not matter that much. The selection committee always looks for the big quality wins and Syracuse only has Army and Albany in the Top 11-15 category. There are ten (actually 11 counting Penn State) other teams out there that have bigger quality wins than Syracuse.

CONTROVERSY!!! What about Penn State? They are riding a seven game winning streak, while Army has lost two straight! If any of what I have done above turns out to be wrong, it might be that Penn State gets the edge over Army and PSU gets in to the tourney. Maybe they view Penn State's win over Georgetown today as a being a bigger win than Army's win over Cornell. And if the committee goes that way, they avoid all the backlash of Syracuse saying that they beat Army! Plus PSU is riding a seven game winning streak.

So, Wombat says Army gets in, but I would not be surprised at all to see that Penn State gets in instead of Army.

So, Wombat's tournament field, PRIOR TO SEEDING the teams, are:

AQs: Navy, Patriot; Cornell, Ivy; Albany, AE; Fairfield, GWLL; Towson, CAA; and Marist, MAAC.

At Large Teams: JHU, Maryland, Duke, Virginia, Georgetown, Dartmouth, Bucknell, UMass, Delaware and Army.

Here is how Wombat sees the seedings going. Only the top 8 teams are seeded, and then the remaining 8 teams are paired up with two things in mind - trying to put the weaker teams against the higher seeded teams while trying to spread out the travel distances. So a little bit of geography factors in to this.

Seeds: (including Hymie's RPI and Wobus RPI calculations)

#1 Johns Hopkins (12-0), RPI 1,1, no question there.

#2 Duke (14-2), RPI 2,3. Could flip flop with Maryland, but with only two losses, Wombat thinks Duke will reign at #2.

#3 Maryland (9-5), RPI 4,2. ACC Champion. More Top 5 RPI wins that Virginia.

#4 Virginia (9-3), RPI 3,4. They will like the #4 seed, with a possible semifinal match up against JHU. They have two Top 6-10 wins.

#5 Navy (11-3), RPI 5,5. The Mids will also like this part of the bracket.

#6 UMass (12-2), RPI 7,6. One of only two northern teams to be seeded in the Top 8. If they win the first round, they will head to the Princeton Quarterfinal site on May 22nd. UMass gets the edge over Cornell because they have two Top 6-10 wins over GT and Syracuse.

#7 Cornell (10-2), RPI 10,9. The other northern team, with a huge 6-10 win over Syracuse.

#8 Georgetown (9-4), RPI 9,10. The Hoyas slip down to #8 in the seedings after Sunday's loss to Penn State.

So, there you have it. The top 8 seeds as predicted by Wombat. Now, how do you pair the other eight teams up to these 8 seeds?

The remaining teams are Albany, Fairfield, Towson, Marist, Dartmouth, Bucknell, Delaware and Army.

Clearly, the MAAC champion Marist will play at #1 Johns Hopkins. If Mount St. Mary's had won the MAAC, MSM probably would have been sent to play Duke next weekend. But JHU lucks out and draws Marist.

Next up is a little tougher, but Wombat thinks #2 Duke will draw the GWLL champion Fairfield. Fairfield is close enough to some Southwest Airlines airports to fly down to Duke.

#3 Maryland will draw a team that has to travel a bit, but it won't be a team they played in the regular season (Bucknell, Dartmouth). Wombat thinks Maryland will draw Army, which just barely made it into the tourney.

#4 Virginia will draw another team that just made the final cut - Delaware.

#5 Navy will draw Albany, who can fly Southwest Airlines. No kidding, we here at Swami Enterprises thinks there is a big influence on pairings based on Southwest Airlines.

#6 UMass will draw Dartmouth.

#7 Cornell will draw Bucknell.

#8 Georgetown will draw Towson. No big travel requirement there, but some of these will turn out to be easier trips than others.

So, that is how Wombat sees it. But wait, there is one more missing ingredient. Who will head to the North and South Quarterfinal sites on May 21st and May 22nd respectively?

Here it is:

#1 JHU or Marist vs. #8 Georgetown or Towson in the first game at the SOUTH Quarterfinal Site, May 21st.

#4 Virginia or Delaware vs. #5 Navy or Albany in the second game at the SOUTH Quarterfinal Site, May 21st.

#2 Duke or Fairfield vs. #7 Cornell or Bucknell in the first game at the NORTH Quarterfinal Site, May 22nd.

#3 Maryland or Army vs. #6 UMass or Dartmouth in the second game at the NORTH Quarterfinal Site, May 22nd.

So, there you have it. Wombat's 2005 predictions of what the NCAA Men's D1 Tourney Field should look like it. No one has ever guessed this exactly correctly though.

Who knows, maybe Syracuse gets in. Maybe Penn State gets in. Those would be the two major variants of the above. If Penn State gets in over Army, I would put them right where I have Army in the pairings. If Syracuse gets in, look out, no one wants Syracuse in May. But this could be the second year in a row that the defending champion does not make it into the following year's tournament. Virginia blew their wheels off last year and were not even playoff eligible. And the first NCAA champion Cornell failed to get back in to the tourney in 1972. It is an extremely rare event, but with greater parity and more upsets over the past few years, it is becoming that much more difficult for the defending champion to first, successfully defend their title, and sometimes, second - even get back in to the tourney in the first place. D1 lacrosse is becoming VERY WILD!

Good luck in the playoffs, and may your favorite team(s) win!

Well, that is it for the Wombat Zone, with Wombat's special tournament bracket predictions. Wombat and his Cracked Crystal Ball are looking forward to the playoffs! Now is the time that it all matters - MAY MADNESS!!!

Have a great week, let the playoffs begin!

Still,
"Alone at the Bottom"
--Wombat

What's new...
RPI's: A primer...
This week: It's all over now...
It's that time of the season that RPI's are beginning to matter...
Hymie! has just refurbished his RPI and SOS pages. They now contain more information that ever. If you're a fan, and you haven't been to Hymies! pages, you are missing one of the best lacrosse web sites around. Hymie! has incorporated a "what if" scenario on his site. So you can take a look at this week's big games and plug in the team, or teams, you think will win, and see the impact of that (those) win(s) on their RPI's. This is especially important in 2005 since so many opponents' RPI's are being devalued by upsets.

Here is a quick primer on RPI's:

The Ratings Percentage Index (RPI) is a tool used by the NCAA to compute a mathematical ranking of teams based on valuing wins and losses in accordance with the strength of their schedules. Out-of-division records, as well as records including the team being considered, are not included in the computations. RPI considerations incorporate:

1.) The team's winning percentage;

2.) The average winning percentage of the team's opponents; and,

3.) The average winning percentage of the team's opponents' opponents. These factors are multiplied by25%, 50%, and 25% respectively. Hymie!, a computer programmer, computes RPI's for Division I lacrosse on a regular basis. In addition Hymie! has taken the RPI calculation a step further than others. At his website, fans can plug in hypothetical game outcomes and see how a given team's RPI would change for specific game results.

RPI is only one factor used in picking teams for the annual NCAA Division I tournament in May, but it appears to be the largest consideration.

You can connect with Hymies! web page through the Swami's pull out links try on the left side of the screen, or follow the links below. Note: the "LXP" column refers to the proprietary rankings developed by Laxpower.com. See that site for a detailed explanation of that formula.

Link HERE to Hymies! RPI page.

Link HERE to Hymies! Strength of Schedule (SOS) and Major Strength of Schedule (MSOS) page.


Hymie's RPI chart (games played through 5/8/2005):
#TEAMW-LRPISOSMSOSQWF
1johns.hopkins12-072.2262.9665.84422
2virginia9-365.9162.8865.62121
3maryland9-565.8866.4172.97221
4duke14-265.8458.6265.33213
5navy11-362.8757.6464.91103
6georgetown10-362.5157.7062.36111
7towson11-461.2257.1861.88001
8massachusetts12-261.2053.0356.76020
9syracuse7-561.0361.9363.84002
10cornell10-259.8952.0755.75011
11army11-558.9355.6665.28010
12north.carolina5-857.4163.7368.58010
13delaware11-557.1253.2559.20011
14notre.dame7-456.8654.6155.87001
15albany10-556.7753.4761.75010
16penn.state8-655.9855.5959.64000
17hofstra8-855.7657.6963.69002
18fairfield11-454.9248.7953.31001
19bucknell8-553.7551.1557.18100
20dartmouth8-453.6149.2653.58101
21denver9-553.5049.9055.28001
22yale7-552.5150.5655.83000
23stony.brook10-651.7948.2258.11001
24princeton5-751.4354.6858.12000
25umbc7-850.8252.2159.97001
26lehigh9-550.7746.2653.26000
27drexel8-550.5946.9353.51001
28loyola5-850.3554.3162.81010
29ohio.state6-849.8452.1759.62001
30rutgers4-949.5055.7559.85001
31villanova7-849.4650.4058.00000
32hobart7-749.4649.2856.63000
33brown6-648.9548.5953.45000
34mt.st.marys8-848.7848.3858.73000
35sacred.heart6-848.6750.6158.49000
36harvard5-848.2751.5458.30000
37colgate7-747.1946.2651.99000
38butler5-745.4346.6952.24000
39marist7-745.2843.7149.71000
40vermont4-744.9047.7550.01000
41manhattan7-744.3942.5148.51000
42air.force4-844.2247.8551.80000
43providence8-844.1642.2150.62000
44binghamton4-944.1248.5653.35000
45pennsylvania2-1142.8051.9354.75000
46bellarmine3-141.5730.4230.42000
47vmi6-741.4739.9145.12000
48holy.cross3-1140.2246.4853.00000
49canisius5-739.8439.2343.03000
50lafayette2-1138.9046.7453.43000
51st.johns2-1138.5346.2553.95000
52quinnipiac2-1137.8945.3948.35000
53st.josephs3-1137.4142.7449.23000
54siena4-1136.0939.2346.29000
55hartford2-1234.4441.1647.35000
56wagner2-1233.2839.6146.35000
57robert.morris0-1328.0337.3742.04000




The Swami's Top 16
(May 3, 2005) 

1. Johns Hopkins
Undefeated with three big wins--even if all were by a single goal at home.
2. Navy
You've got to rank Navy over Maryland on the basis of head-to-head competition, and biggest win (Maryland vs. Duke). You also have to rank Navy over Maryland on the basis of worst loss (Bucknell vs. Dartmouth), and performance against Hopkins. That's a lot of criteria.
3. Maryland
You have to rank Maryland over Navy on the basis of record against common opponents Georgetown, Bucknell, and UNC. How important is that?
4. Duke
A close call from North Carolina, solid defeat by Maryland, and loss to Hopkins drops the Dookies.
5. Georgetown
Best wins: Navy, Syracuse. Worst losses: Maryland, UMass.
6. Virginia
Best wins: Maryland, Syracuse, Denver. Worst losses: Maryland, Duke, by a score of 17-2.
7. Army
Best wins: Cornell, Bucknell (twice). Worst losses: Duke, Navy, Syracuse.
8. UMass
Best wins: Georgetown, Penn State, Syracuse. Worst losses: Albany, Loyola.
9. Cornell
Best wins: Notre Dame, Syracuse. Worst losses: Army, North Carolina.
10. Syracuse
Best win: Army. Worst losses: UMass, Cornell.
11. Denver
Best win: Notre Dame. Worst loss: Yale.
12. Bucknell
Best wins: Navy, Lehigh. Worst losses: Harvard, Penn State.
13. Dartmouth
Best wins: Maryland, Notre Dame. Worst losses: Sacred Heart, Albany.
14. Towson
Best wins: Denver, Hofstra. Worst losses: Delaware, Virginia.
15. Fairfield
Best win: Notre Dame, Penn State. Worst losses: Sacred Heart, Butler.
16. Delaware
Best wins: Towson, Albany. Worst losses: Rutgers, Hofstra.







USILA Coaches' Poll

Division I--May 2, 2005

No. Name
Record
(First place votes) Points
Previous
1 Johns Hopkins
11-0
(10) 200
1
2 Duke
14-2
186
2
3 Cornell
9-2
171
4
4 Navy
11-3
165
5
5 Virginia
9-3
157
3
6 Maryland
8-5
150
10
7 Georgetown
9-3
145
6
8 Massachusetts
11-2
144
8
9 Syracuse
7-5
117
7
10 Army
11-4
114
9
11 Towson
9-4
91
12
12 Denver
9-4
75
15
13 Dartmouth
7-4
73
11
14 Bucknell
8-5
65
14
15 Penn State
8-5
61
18
16 Delaware
10-4
42
19
17 Tie Albany
8-5
39
13
17 Tie Fairfield
10-4
39
16
19 Hofstra
8-7
29
NR
20 UMBC
7-7
18
NR

Others receiving votes (in order): Notre Dame 7, Brown 4, North Carolina 4, Stony Brook 3, Binghamton 1

One can only assume that this poll had a deadline before last Sunday's tournament games. Nevertheless, with losses to Army and North Carolina--two teams Navy has beaten three times this season, and a biggest wins over #9 Syracuse and #13 Dartmouth, how in the world does Cornell get ranked over Navy, which beat #6 Maryland and #10 Army, and has losses only to #1 Hopkins, #7 Georgetown, and #14 Bucknell? Navy's worst loss is almost better than Cornell's best win. Of course, you could also ask by what twisted logic Cornell deserves to be ranked over Virginia, Maryland, and Georgetown also.

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