Swami's Lacrosse This Week #08-11

Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium in Annapolis will host the second round (South) playoffs.

Commentary...
Why the playoff bracket is hard to predict...
The Swami is no more successful this season than last...
The NCAA's arcane math...

The three (main) components of the NCAA's playoff selection criteria are: ratings percentage index (RPI), strength of schedule (SOS), and quality of wins. But just how are these three components mixed in the process? Judging from predictions last week, not many fans, if any, know too much--including the Swami, who predicted the inclusion of Georgetown and the exclusion of Denver, and also managed to botch the order. There are several things that we do know, however--or, at least we think we know these things.

The first of these is how to correctly compute the RPI. If you look at John Wobus' calculations (HERE), you will notice that his final rankings, after all the regular season games were over, match the exact order of the NCAA's calculations (HERE). Of course, the NCAA does not give us exact numbers, or, really, any numbers at all, but what are the chances that someone who computes RPI's for a number of NCAA sports would get them wrong, but also get them wrong in the precise order of the NCAA's computation? So, we have high confidence that these numbers are correct.

With regard to SOS, that number is derived from first calculating RPI--so they are related in a way. We know from the NCAA Handbook that only the top ten opponents of each team's RPI's are used for calculating SOS. Laxpower claims to have done that (HERE). So, if these figures are correct, in what proportion are they used?

We think we know that too. It's a mixture of 30% (top ten) SOS and 20% RPI. Let's take a practical look at an example. Duke had an RPI of 66.90 and an SOS of 60.61. Multiply both by the aforementioned percentages and total them to 31.563. Suppose either the RPI of SOS is off by a small amount? That amount gets even smaller after it is reduced by the applied percentages.

To get into the big numbers you have to get to quality of wins--because we think that's worth a full 50%.

It is thought that each team gets an award of points in that category. Presumably, one set of points for teams ranked 1-5, another for those ranked 6-11, and one for the 11-15 bracket. For losing to teams in those brackets, a team would also incurr a deduction. It is thought that the number of points applied for winning over teams ranked in the top five is 20--and the deduction for losing to those teams is a single point. If that is true, Duke picked up 80 points for beating four teams ranked in the top category. Add those to the 31.563 we've already calculated for Duke and you have a total of 111.563. But that's not all. In addition to beating Virginia twice, and North Carolina twice, Duke also beat Johns Hopkins, Maryland and Colgate. Those last teams are ranked (by RPI) in the 6-10 bracket. How many points for that? We don't really know that answer, so this is where the guessing begins.

One way to ferret these points out is to look at a few "key" teams. One of those teams is Navy. Why Navy? Because Navy won all its big games in the 6-10 bracket and none in the 1-5 bracket or in the 11-15 bracket--so Navy represents a "pure play" on wins in the middle category. We also know that Navy was most likely the last team picked in the playoffs this season. That ranks Navy at around #9 in terms of at-large teams. Adjust that for the league auto-bids by higher seeded teams and you probably have Navy going at #12 or #13. So, how do you manipulate Navy's three wins and two losses in category 11-15 into 12th or 13th place?

The answer is that you don't. That is, not without pulling other teams way out of the places where we know they ended up.

So, what's the conclusion?

We're still missing something and no one knows what exactly it is.
swami@laxswami.com

This Week...
Lacrosse broadcast links...

PLEASE NOTE: ALL OF THE FIRST ROUND GAMES OF THE NCAA PLAYOFFS WILL BE TELEVISED BY ESPNU (DIRECTV CHANNEL 609). THERE ARE FOUR GAMES ON SATURDAY AND FOUR GAMES ON SUNDAY. THE FIRST GAME BEGINS AT 12 NOON AND EACH SUCCEEDING GAME IS SCHEDULED TO BEGIN TWO AND A HALF HOURS LATER. MANY, IF NOT ALL, OF THESE GAMES ARE SCHEDULED FOR RE-BROADCAST LATER IN THE WEEK.

Each week the Swami notices questions on the Laxpower board about which games will be broadcast that weekend. Hey, they're all here! The Swami usually posts the broadcast links on Monday of each week, so fans can see which games (if any) are broadcast before the Thursday publication deadline for "This Week."

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The Game of the Week:
.....Navy at North Carolina

Saturday, May 10, 7:30 PM, Fetzer Field, Chapel Hill, NC
To listen to Pete Medhurst call this game over WNAV Internet radio, click on the logo below:

This game will also be televised live on ESPNU, DirecTV Channel 609
(Game times are approximate and subject to adjustment, so check schedules for changes. College radio is often hit or miss, and the Swami's media links may not always work).

1. Navy (unseeded) at North Carolina (#4)--(Saturday, May 10, 7:30 PM, Chapel Hill, NC)--TV GAME--In last year's playoffs, #4 Cornell played unseeded Towson and won 14-6. In 2006, #4 Johns Hopkins defeated unseeded Penn by a score of 13-3. And in 2005, #4 Virginia downed unseeded Albany 23-9. This season, history may well have been thwarted for the #4 seed when North Carolina drew Navy. How did this happen? First, Navy lost two important games in overtime: Cornell and Georgetown. Navy was also upset by both Army and Colgate (a team which Navy had beaten earlier in the season by a score of 8-3). Finally, the Mids lost rather embarrassingly to Hopkins. That game (12-5) was simply a real stinker. No analysis other than that Navy just did not show up for the Blue Jays will suffice. The last three contests of the season were also consecutive losses for Navy--leading skeptics to believe that the Midshipmen had simply given up. Regardless of that fact, Navy is still Navy--meaning the Mids can play with the very top teams--and also lose to the not-so-top.

Aside from all that, the Navy-North Carolina series is not without its own interesting history. You'd have to go back to 1995 to find a year in which these two teams did not meet at least once. As you can see from the accompanying table, during a period of only five years, they played five consecutive one goal games, three consecutive games whose score was 11-10, and 12 overtime periods, including the famous 2002 contest which is the longest game in the history of Division I lacrosse. The two teams have an all-time record of 11-11. Here are the results of the most recent matches:

YEAR	NAVY	UNC
1999	6	8
2000	10	11 (1 OT)
2001	10	11
2002	10	11 (6 OT)
2003	8	9 (4 OT)
2004	8	9 (1 OT)
2005	6	9
2006	11	3
2007	19	8
2007	8	12

Neither team is without its problems. North Carolina's difficulty has been inconsistency. Unless the Tarheels meet another Atlantic Coast Conference team in the playoffs and defeat them, this year's UNC team will be the first class to graduate in the history of the UNC lacrosse program that did not win a single ACC game in four years. There are those who think that perhaps no team has squandered more talent than UNC in the past ten years.

Navy's dilemma has been playing too many "free-lance" games. That occurs when the team, oddly enough an all military squad, does not listen to its coaches and insists on playing in whatever manner strikes the various individual team members. As a consequence, the Mids looked clueless against Army and never effectively recovered from that loss. The following week they went through the motions with Hopkins and finished the regular season looking befuddled against Colgate. But Navy can also look brilliant--as it did in the Maryland game when the Mids' defense held the Terps to a mere four goals.

Finally, there are those cynic$ who have the temerity to $uggest that the Almighty Dollar may have influenced the NCAA's thinking with Navy's selection. Do you think the NCAA i$ all about money? Hey, what could these cynics po$$ibly be $moking? They point out that the Naval Academy has already been named as host of the next week's (South) playoff games. So, if Navy can survive North Carolina this week in Chapel Hill, the Mids would be playing Johns Hopkins at home in Annapolis next week (assuming Hopkins wins, of course). As everyone who knows lacrosse is aware, there's nothing special about the attendance associated with Hopkins at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium. Right?

HOPKINS-NAVY ATTENDANCE

DATE	AT BALTIMORE	AT ANNAPOLIS
2001	6,136	.
2002	.	15,271
2003	3,280	.
2004	.	18,694
2005	6,308	.
2006	.	13,857
2007	6,856	.
2008	.	16,042
TOTAL	22,580	63,864

If Navy expects to escape the treacheries of Tobacco Rowd in one piece, it will have to grab the quick lead and rely on its #1 ranked defense to keep the Tarheels boxed out--no easy task, but one which the Mids can accomplish if they decide to listen to their coach.

How many years does Navy get a chance to redeem itself against Hopkins? The historic answer is: zero. The Mids and the Blue Jays have never played twice in the same season and have never played each other in a playoff game. If the two teams average 16,000 fans in Annapolis for regular season games, what will a double-header along with, say, Maryland and UMBC (or Virginia) draw? With seating capacity of 34,000, could the Battleship sell out?

A Navy win gives lacrosse an historic, and potentially record-breaking, game card before Memorial Day. Can the Mids blow this? Yes, but the Swami likes Navy to bring its real game to Fetzer Field and come home to play in front of ALL its fans in an historic match--because, for this one, those many fans will travel from out-of-town. Now you're talking about a crowd that this sport may have never seen at this stage of the season. Unexpected? Maybe. But, when Navy reached the championship game in 2004 no one expected it either. That was the last time Navy played in front of all its fans.

2. Denver (unseeded) at Maryland (#7)--(Saturday, May 10, 12 Noon, College Park, MD)--TV GAME--The last time Maryland hosted a team from the GWLL in a playoff game it was Ohio State in 2003. The Buckeyes did not score until there was only 2:16 left in the half. They went into the locker room down 5-1. Worse, in the third quarter, the Terp defense allowed their opponents only three shots--none hit the net. Down, 6-1, with only six minutes left in the game, Ohio State finally came to life, scoring four consecutive goals and looking at a 6-5 deficit with two minutes in the game. Maryland went on to win, but not without plenty of drama.

This week Denver comes to College Park. The last times these two teams faced each other was in the playoffs two years ago. Maryland won that game, 16-8. The Swami thinks the Terps will do it again. If Maryland wins, the Terps will head to Annapolis the next weekend. There, they may join two or, possibly, three other teams from Maryland in a double-header that, if Hopkins and Navy are involved would be a lacrosse afternoon of historic proportions--and a real record-breaker. The Swami likes the Terps in front of a hometown crowd, but this may be more of a struggle than most fans think.
3. Loyola (unseeded) at Duke (#1)--(Saturday, May 10, 2:30 PM, Durham, NC)--TV GAME--If the Swami had to pick one single team that could upset Duke, it would be Loyola. Take a look at this series over the past nine years:

YEAR	DUKE	LOYOLA
2000	10	11
2001	8	10
2002	9	11
2003	10	4
2004	11	3
2005	6	5
2006	9	7
2007	7	8
2008	21	8

With a 4-5 record over the past nine years, Loyola has shown that it knows how to play Duke. The question, of course, is can the Greyhounds do it again this season? The Swami thinks not, but this game offers Loyola an opportunity the improving Greyhounds the chance to really make news. The Swami thinks that Loyola, which lost more scoring than any other of the top 35 teams in Division I from 2007 (over 70%), has played admirably this year. The Greyhound's coach, Charlie Toomey, has performed equally well. This game could well become the shocker of the week, but the Swami cannot pick against this Duke team.
4. Ohio State (unseeded) at Cornell (#8)--(Saturday, May 10, 5:00 PM, Ithaca, NY)--TV GAME--The last time the Buckeyes came to Maryland for a playoff game was in 2003 at College Park. The day before that contest the Swami sat behind that team as they watched Hopkins dismantle Army 14-2. In those days, Ohio State was the team you wanted your son to play for if he had a preference for tattoos and body piercing. Squad members resembled a group ad for Harley-Davidson. They were a wild bunch. The Swami has not checked out this season's edition for body art, but this team lost only four regular season games this year, four of them being in overtime (Navy, UMBC and Bucknell). Common opponents among these teams are Navy, which lost to Cornell and beat Ohio State by the identical scores of 8-7 (both games, ironically in overtime), and Denver. Cornell beat Denver by a score of 20-7. The Buckeyes defeated the Pioneers twice, 20-13 and 15-8. Both teams also played North Carolina, with Cornell losing (13-8) and OSU winning (14-11).

The Buckeyes can be prolific scorers and, as such, one of only two teams to score 20 or more goals twice this season. That's good news for OSU fans because the Buckeyes will need all the offense they can muster against a team that is undefeated in 2008 when leading at halftime.

If you read NCAA points per game statistics, you have probably noticed that right under Duke's Matt Danowski (5.25 ppg) and Matt Greer (4.88), are Buckeyes Kevin Buchanan and Joel Dalgarno. Both are tied with 4.60 points per game. They are the main reason for this team's success. But, if the Buckeyes have one problem, it is that the team may be #4 in scoring offense, but it is #21 in scoring defense, and is not on the map in terms of face-off wins. Cornell, on the other hand, ranks fourth in face-off success, #8 offensively, and is also below the top fifteen in scoring defense (#18). The Swami thinks that this will be a close game. Ohio State's record is based on a seasonal strength of schedule of .584 vs. Cornell's .573. This is only the third time these two teams have met (they are 1-1), but Cornell has lost only one home game in 2008 and is 8-1 lifetime against Great Western opposition. If there's an upset in the first round, this game may be the most likely. But the Swami likes Cornell.
5. Colgate (unseeded) at Notre Dame (#6)--(Sunday, May 11, 12 Noon, South Bend, IN)--TV GAME--When people said at the beginning of the season that the Patriot League was "wide open" most of them did not mean to include Colgate. Navy, which had not lost a Patriot League Championship since joining that conference four years ago, began its season injured and looking a little ragged. Army was up and coming. And Bucknell was bringing back over 86% of its scoring from 2007. Surely predominance of this conference in 2008 would involve a huge scrap among only these three teams. But, for the better part of the past month, it is Colgate that has been on a roll. First, there was the unexpected regular season victory over arch-rival Bucknell on April 19th. That was followed the very next week by the Raiders' upset of Navy (a team which had handily beaten Colgate earlier) in the first round of the Patriot League Tournament. Two days later, Colgate faced Bucknell in that league's championship game, and won--this time extending its margin from two goals (11-9) in the first meeting to four (13-9) in the last of the two games. With the Patriot auto-bid in its pocket, the Raiders then played host to Syracuse for their final game, which was, in many ways, meaningless to Colgate. The Raiders walked away with a 12-11 victory over their guest. What has happened to Colgate? First and foremost, Chris Eck, the Raiders' face-off specialist, has maintained his 2007 pace by winning 62.5% of his draws. That's significant because this weekend, Eck will be facing the #2 face-off specialist in Division I according to NCAA statistics. Notre Dame's Taylor Clagett has won 64.4% of his face-offs this season. Also featured in this game will be the stingy man down defense of the Raiders (#1 in Division I) against the fourth most productive man up offense of the Fighting Irish. So far as Notre Dame is concerned, the Fighting Irish captured the #6 seed without benefit of having the most challenging schedule in Division I. Notre Dame, which finished its campaign with a record of 13-2, lost to Denver and North Carolina--two of the best teams it faced during the regular season. While the Irish are possessed of two wins over Ohio State, there are many who feel that the Irish were never really tested during the season. So, just how good are the Irish? The Swami thinks good enough to win this game.
6. Hofstra (unseeded) at Johns Hopkins (#5)--(Sunday, May 11, 2:30 PM, Baltimore, MD)--TV GAME--Is anyone not aware that Hofstra upset Johns Hopkins earlier this season? If so, they probably do not live in Baltimore, where Hopkins fans wore hair shirts for the next week. That game was played on Long Island. This game will be played at Homewood Field. If Hopkins loses to Hofstra this weekend, there will likely be structural changes to the campus on Charles Street. The Swami likes the Blue Jays at home.
7. UMBC (unseeded) at Virginia (#2)--(Sunday, May 11, 5:00 PM, Charlottesville, VA)--TV GAME--Everyone is wondering what UMBC coach Don Zimmerman will have up his sleeve for this game. Let's face it, UMBC, more than any other team is the surprise of the season. Since graduation in 2007, UMBC lost almost 70% of its scoring. This year, however, the Retrievers are averaging only about 1.1 goals per game less than they did in 2007--a gap that has been somewhat offset by a drop in goals scored against the team. The Dawgs most notable achievements this season were the defeat of three other tournament teams: Maryland, Ohio State and Denver. They also played Hopkins to within two goals at Homewood Field. But, can the Retrievers win this game? The Swami thinks maybe enough to pick them as a one point win.

Chesapeake Bay Retrievers are obstinate and smelly, so this is an aptly named team. But every Dawg has its day. This weekend they escape from the pound. Charlottesville is Upset City this Sunday.
8. Canisius (unseeded) at Syracuse (#3)--(Sunday, May 11, 7:30 PM, Syracuse, NY)--TV GAME--The Swami likes Syracuse.

The Big Boyz: Glory Days still on a roll...
He wins the regular season contest with a tremendous push at the end...
The Swami had led this competition from Day One of the 2008 season until just two weeks ago. But now, a second bad week for the Swami has given Glory Days the regular season championship. But, do not worry. The contest does not end until the final playoff game, and the Swami will be back.

This week the Big Boyz welcome a vagabond into their midst. Read on...

What is the "Big Boyz" system?...
Anyone can pick the winners of lacrosse games. The lacrosse boards are full of people who pick Duke over St. Andrew's every year. There are several contests going on right now where the participants will actually pick more winners than the Big Boyz. But the Big Boyz do not just pick the winners of games. The Big Boyz use a system of weighted picks, and confine their picking to the most difficult Division I games. That enables you to analyze the degree of certainty imparted with each pick--a significant difference with other competing slates of games.

Each week the Big Boyz pick the winners of an average of a dozen games. In a typical 11 game week, winners are chosen by placing between 1-11 points on a team (with no number being used twice). If that team wins, the winner receives the number of points placed on it. So, for example, in using this system, the prognosticator would place 11 points on the team he (or she) was most confidant of winning, 10 points on the second most confidant pick, down to a single point on the game that the picker thought was most in doubt. This eliminates most ties and places a premium on upset picks. It also values a picker's win/loss record relatively, thus giving little recognition to luck.

Get ready for Week #11!

From Newbie 411...
Navy is the upset...

(6) Denver at Maryland-Maryland

(5) Loyola at Duke-Duke

(3) Ohio State at Cornell-Cornell

(2) Navy at North Carolina-Navy

(1) Colgate at Notre Dame-Notre Dame

(4) Hofstra at Hopkins-Hopkins

(7) UMBC at Virginia-Virginia

(8) Canisius at Syracuse-Syracuse.

--Newbie 411.

From the Ivyman...
"Prisoners at Guantánamo"...
Ivyman dissects the playoff picks...

When Sunday night's lacrosse tournament show was aired, I was stranded in an ESPNU-free zone, controlled by the iron fisted bosses of Comcast. Prisoners at Guantánamo have an easier time getting a Koran then I had getting the tournament teams and brackets. The posters on the Lax Power forum were helpful, but tended to post in incomplete sentences and did not include the order of the seeds frequently. Ultimately though after the traffic backed down, I was finally able to see how it all shook out.

And, for the most part, I liked it. Like many others I was puzzled at the inclusion of Denver and the exclusion of Georgetown. But on one of the threads, a poster who goes by the name of "humb le" very cleverly laid out the various factors under consideration by the committee without identifying the teams and asked others to pick who would get the bids. Under these circumstances those who chose selected as the committee did, awarding bids to the teams that ultimately turned out to be Denver and Navy. Nice job humb le.

I like the Hopkins - Hofstra rematch. Hofstra started Hopkins' five game losing streak, and would like nothing better than to be the ones to eliminate the Jays. I'd like to see Hofstra win. I'd also like to see them go back to last year's helmet logo. The Lion/lioness was much cooler than the H. Everybody's got an H: Hobart, Hopkins, Harvard, Herkimer, and Hamilton. Enough H's. More lions.

I like the Duke - Loyola rematch. I think Loyola at the end of the year was a much better team than it was when it played Duke on March 8th. Loyola has Dan Chemotti, a former Duke player as a coach. And remember, last year Loyola beat Duke. Now they get that same Duke team minus graduation losses. Wait - Duke didn't have any graduation losses, did they? Oh well… never mind.

I like the Maryland - Denver match up. These are two pretty chippy teams. They may need to install bleacher seats in the penalty box. A lot of guys at the tailgates will look like they've still got their eye black on.

I like UMBC - Virginia. Isn't this the same scenario as last year when Delaware beat Virginia in Charlottesville? Delaware went into that game with their only quality win being Towson. UMBC goes in with wins against Denver, Maryland, and Ohio State. Seems to me to be much less of a longs hot than last years Hens.

I like Navy- Carolina. This will be the second year in a row that Navy gets into the tournament and faces the 'Heels in the first round. After handling them easily in an early season home game last year, Navy was embarrassed in the tournament game. If they can get even decent goal tending in this game, they can look forward to playing at home in the next round, and free breakfasts at Chick and Ruth's Delly.

I like Colgate - Notre Dame. I have no idea how Notre Dame held Ohio State to only two goals last week, and the defense has given up more than nine only once this year (in their first racehorse 17 - 12 game against Ohio State) so I don't question their D. On offense however, Drexel was the only other ranked team where they exceeded nine goals. So I think Colgate is a live underdog in this one and it would be really neat to have Syracuse Cornell and Colgate all play in the quarterfinals in Ithaca.

I like Cornell - Ohio State. Cornell did very well against the Buckeyes in the fall ball, and both teams of clearly improved a lot since then. Ohio State is not real strong on face-offs, gives up a lot of goals to teams that run, and has no playoff experience. They can, however, score a lot. I need Jake Myers to have a really big day in Cornell's goal. And no penalties, Gradinger. You too, McDonald. Since the Ohio State mascot is The Buckeye (and with no chance of improving on the representation of this on Wombat's link last week) which has been described as "a tough nut that's hard to crack," I offer one of these to the entire Cornell defense if they can shut down Ohio State:

So I like all these games. Do I like Syracuse -Canisius? Not so much. I'd really love to see Canisius win this, but hard as I try I can't find a reason to even hope so. Early in the year they lost in overtime to Colgate, so maybe they can hang with the Orange, but I don't see Syracuse falling asleep for this one after missing the playoffs last year. So maybe after two straight days of wall-to-wall lacrosse on television I'll let my wife watch a movie on Sunday night.

The picks:

Denver at Maryland 6.

Loyola at Duke 8.

Ohio State at Cornell 3.

Navy at North Carolina 2.

Sunday:

Colgate at Notre Dame 1.

Hofstra at Hopkins 4.

UMBC at Virginia 5.

Canisius at Syracuse 7.

--Ivyman...

From Glory Days...
Team Glory Days win regular season Big Boyz contest...
Last weekend upsets affect NCAA picks...

In this season's battle to prove who is the top lacrosse prognosticator among the Big Boyz , the Swami took an early lead and reminded us weekly he was the man on top. All that ended on Week Nine when Glory Days slipped past the turbaned one and then put the hammer down on Week Ten to comfortably cruise to victory. I'd like to thank the other members of Team Glory Days (Mr. Lacrosse, Monk and Boy George) for their invaluable insight and extraordinary knowledge of D-1 lacrosse teams. Our next goal is to win in the post-season.

Upset City...the big one was Penn State over Georgetown (out go the Hoyas), Brown over Princeton (bye, bye Tigers) and Penn over Army (good night Black Knights). Colgate knocking off 'Cuse was also a shocker, but had little bearing on the tournament other then elevating UVA to the #2 seed (and I'm not so sure that was a gift). I guess my biggest question remains...how did Denver get in? Is the GWLL that good to have three teams? I'm still puzzled and will probably never really understand what goes on behind the selection committee doors. Navy I kind of get since the NCAA is hoping for a UVA-Maryland, Navy-Hopkins doubleheader in Annapolis on the 17th. That could actually draw 25,000-30,000 fans. Finally, I'll say it, Georgetown got screwed. Only team to beat Duke as well as a win vs. Navy. Maybe next year?

(4) Denver / Maryland - Pioneers dancing is still a mystery. Problem is they don't have the D to stop the young Terp attack. I like UMD at home but who will Cottle start in goal?

(7) Loyola / Duke - Take Duke all day, every day, especially in the first round. The Hounds did beat Duke last year, but got crushed by the Blue Devils in March.

(3) Ohio State / Cornell - I thought the Buckeyes had hit their stride 'till they only scored two goals against ND. This will probably be a close game, but the Big Red have the advantage in Ithaca.

(1) Navy / UNC - Team Glory Days is split on this one. Every time these teams play it's a one goal game--and often OT. I'm taking the 'Heels based on the play of goalie Grant Zimmerman and playing in Chapel Hill.

(2) Colgate / Notre Dame - Pick 'um. Red Raiders beat Syracuse, so I guess they can beat anyone, but like the game above, I like goalie Joey Kemp and the Irish in South Bend.

(6) Hofstra / Hopkins - The Dutchboys beat the Jays in March--but not at Homewood. Rabil and Peyser are now getting support from the others, and Bocklet is a ground ball machine.

(5) UMBC / Virginia - The Retrievers will slow this game down to a snails pace with agonizingly long possessions, but when the 'Hoos get the ball it should be lights out. Key is Petit playing like he did against Duke in the ACC final. 'Hoos don't lose much in C'ville.

(8) Canisius / Syracuse - This is the slam dunk of the weekend. In the Dome, 'Cuse takes out the Colgate loss on the Griffins (preseason ranked #47 in D-1).

--Glory Days

From Columbia Blue & Black...
Back to the Wombatian pits?

Denver--Maryland (#7)--Twerps at home. 4.

Loyola--Duke (#1)--Would love to see an upset, but won't happen on the road. 6.

Ohio State--Cornell (#8)--Big Red at home. 5.

Navy--North Carolina (#4)--NC at home. There's a trend here. 3.

Colgate--Notre Dame (#6)--What the hell. Here's the upset. 1.

Hofstra--Hopkins (#5)--Hopkins at home. 7.

UMBC--Virginia (#2)--Virginia at home, but I do want to see what Don Z pulls out of his hat. 2.

Canisius--Syracuse (#3)--No brainer. 8.

--C B & B

From These Vagabond Shoes...
"I'm gonna to make a brand new start of it..."

Denver at Maryland (6). Denver getting into the field of 16 was too close for comfort. Maryland is battle tested and has some huge wins under the belt. Denver has road woes and couldn't stop OSU's offense with two tries. Maryland's only losses are against top ten teams. Either way, the best is yet to come for Maryland, and babe won't that be fine? Turtles over Pie-in-Ears.

Loyola at Duke (7). Duke is top of the list, king of the hill, A#1. While Loyola is capable of administering the upset, I just don't see it in the same season they lose to Siena. Oh, and also lose this game already in March, 21-8. Devils over Dogs.

Ohio State at Cornell (5). Cornell just beat Hobart and Brown- and we just found out that those teams are pretty good. OSU, my huckleberry friend, finally had an offensive blip and couldn't solve Kemp & Co. against the University or Our Lady. Rojo Grande over the Tree Leaves.

Navy at North Carolina (1). Navy & UNC- toughest call of the week. Both teams on a recent skid. Goats over Squids in a really close one, maybe OT (Navy is used to OT in 2008!).

Colgate at Notre Dame (2). Notre Dame. My kinda town. Beat Ohio State in two very different fashions very recently. In a world where defensemen get much less credit than glory-seeking attackmen, take a very close watching of Dougherty- amongst the very best. And backed up by Kemp, who although may not be the best GK in Division I, has probably a better body of work than anyone save maybe Hewit. But why not Colgate? Colgate comes into the tourney from the street of dreams and makes a grandiose entrance- with some fabulous wins to boast in the recent weeks. ND defense will keep CU down just enough to win. Celtics over the Maroons.

Hofstra at Hopkins (3). Coming from the city that never sleeps, you can upset JHU once, but twice in one season? Coach Soprano (err… Pietramala) will be better prepared this time for his ex-consigliere, Seth Tierney. Despite the regular season records, this is when JHU comes to play- the month May. Conversely, we've seen what Hofstra does in the NCAAs… Avian Pests over the Old Hollanders.

UMBC at Virginia (4). Zimms of the BC Corndogs- is this guy Mr. Success or what? Bounces back from two tough losses, reels off 12 straight wins over good competition, after losing an All-America attack squad? One of the hardest working coaches in Division I, from recruiting to scouting to game day coaching. Unfortunately for the Canines, this will be no moonlight in Vermont, and I give the Cavaliers a slight edge (pun?). BC is running out of gas with a key injury and close games wearing on its starting 10. Swords over Maize Canines.

Canisius at Syracuse (8). Syracuse- Does Canisius go to the Dome and win? No. It's the last dance for Canisius this week. Clementines over Au Airborne Lions.

Denver at Maryland – Maryland (6)

Loyola at Duke – Duke (7)

Ohio State at Cornell – Cornell (5)

Navy at North Carolina – UNC (1)

Colgate at Notre Dame – Notre Dame (2)

Hofstra at Hopkins – Hopkins (3)

UMBC at Virginia – Virginia (4)

Canisius at Syracuse – Syracuse (8).

“I don't mind Sunday night at all, cause that's the night friends come to ball !!!”

--tvs

Welcome to the Wombat Zone...
Let the coronation of the Durham Academy begin...
WOMBAT'S Week 11 Commentary and Picks:

From the words of Jim Mora: "PLAYOFFS? Don't talk about playoffs. Are you kidding me? PLAYOFFS?"

Boy, a lot of people are all ready to just handle the trophy to the Durham Academy this year. Notice, I have decided, just today, to stop referring to the Durham Basketball Academy as DBA. Some friends took objection, noting that, well, DBA hasn't really been playing very good basketball for years now, and that North Carolina is the best team in the ACC and in the state of North Carolina. Even Davidson, also from the great Tar Heel state, had a better year than old Durham Academy. So, from now on, it is "Durham Academy" instead, and that will be abbreviated, ironically, "DA," with no intentional match to the abbreviation of "District Attorney." It was quite by accident that "Durham Academy" = "DA" = "District Attorney." But, there it is. DA.

So, how do you feel about the prospects of the Durham Academy winning it all this year?

Gary Lambrecht (formerly of the Baltimore Sun), who is now a sportswriter for the Baltimore Examiner, has this to say about DA: Read his opinion HERE.

Now, Wombat's position on this whole DA (formerly DBA) affair is complicated. I can put myself in the shoes of opposing fans who absolutely think the move by the NCAA was the worst decision ever and makes a mockery of Do lacrosse, and particularly of this whole 2008 season, not to mention 2009 and 2010.

However, I can also understand how DA supporters feel. I spoke with a parent during the whole crisis in 2006, and what I learned radically changed my view. I do feel like that the NCAA should not have given an extra year of eligibility, but I fully understand why a lot of players and parents are suing the school. They were thrown under the bus, and not only that, the DA administration put the bus in forward and reverse several times to make sure everyone got run over several times during some of the darkest days of those months in 2006.

I find it very perplexing as to how a team can take the field, representing their University, and simultaneously be suing the crap out of them. I hope they win their lawsuits. I don't hope they win the tourney though. They might, but they do have to play a solid 240 minutes of lacrosse to reach the title. Personally, I do not think of them as a pro team, but they are more of a semi-pro team in that only five players are using their extra year of eligibility at DA. But those extra players do make up about half of their starting line up, and could be in the MLL instead. So, half pro, and half seniors, juniors, sophs and frosh. So call them a semi-pro team.

Also, being an extra year older is a big deal. If you ask baseball scouts when does an athlete reach their peak, it is somewhere between the age 26 and 28, with 27 being the usual number if you forced them to pick just one age. So, some of these players are a year older - not at their peak, but definitely a lot more mature and stronger than the 18 and 19 year old freshmen and sophomores who might have been playing in their places.

Anyway, so, before the train wreck arrives in Foxboro three weekends from now, how does everyone feel about what the possible outcome might be?

Do most of the lacrosse fans want to see DA lose? Or, is their a huge contingent of folks who want to adopt DA as "America's Team" and see them ride to redemption?

My view is this, and I came to this conclusion while shaving Monday morning, while trying to think about what I would write for Swami this week. I do a lot of thinking while shaving, and various other bathroom activities. Here is an IDEA on what the DA players should do if they win it all:

I do not like the DA administration. If the teams wins it all, they will have a trophy in their hands that they fought hard for. They will run around the stadium, enjoy their moment in the sun, and it will be one of the greatest moments in their lives. But when it is all said and done, and they get off that field, do the players really want that trophy sitting in some trophy case back at the Durham Academy, after all that the school and administration put them through?

I am familiar with stories about how Matt Danowski has never won the big one. He came up short on several teams in high school, in a few sports. So far, he has come up short in Division 1 Lacrosse. I think it would be a great moment for Matt and all of the other players.

But, why should the Academy get to have a trophy in their hall of fame cases at Cameron Indoor Stadium back in Durham? What did the school do for them?

The players are in this for themselves, and in my opinion, this is how they should celebrate:

Take the trophy, run laps around the stadium, pose as a team for pictures with it, then each player hold it up, individually, and get more pictures.

AND THEN GET OUT A CHAINSAW AND CUT THE TROPHY INTO ABOUT SEVENTY PIECES.

CUT THE TROPHY UP, RIGHT THERE ON THE FIELD, RIGHT FOR THE WHOLE WORLD TO VIEW.

Give each player a piece of the trophy. Give each current Coach a piece. Save some for the other members of the classes of 2006 and 2007, and especially Casey Carroll who enlisted in the Army. But most importantly, be sure to give pieces to Coach Cassese, to Coach Pressler, to Collin Finnerty, to Reade Seligmann and to David Evans.

The pieces of the trophy can be symbols of what these folks have been through the past three years, and when they get together for reunions, they can bring their pieces of the trophy with them.

Now, there are some metal parts to the trophy that might need to be cut up by some other means than a chainsaw, but I am sure that can be taken care of somehow later on. Just be sure to carve up the big round metal NCAA symbol into seventy parts too, and distribute accordingly.

To me, I think cutting up the trophy into pieces right there on the field would show a lot of things - the players have fully rebounded, won it all, and are moving on from that day forward with a piece of the trophy. Could be a symbol of the healing process and poetic justice too.

Now, the Durham Academy Administration might not like the fact that the players cut the trophy up into pieces, but keep in mind the following - the Syracuse 1990 trophy no longer exists and is reportedly buried with Roy Simmons. A precedent has been set for their being a trophy out there that is no longer on display.

Why should the idiots who run the Durham Academy be allowed to display the trophy at Cameron Indoor Stadium? If the DA administrators do not like the fact that the players took a chainsaw to the trophy, I am sure Prez Brodhead can buy a new trophy from the NCAA for the Durham Academy display case.

Anyway, that's Wombat's thoughts on what the DA players should do with their trophy.

But first, there are 15 games that will determine who will win it all. And, by no means, is Wombat ready to hand it to them. They may be the odds on favorite, but I doubt seriously that they will be the favorite of most of the fans. I wish all 16 teams the best of luck, and have a great tournament. May the best team win. If that happens to be the players who have survived the past few years at the Durham Academy, do me a favor and bring a chainsaw to Foxboro and cut that trophy up. Make a statement, right there on the field. Enjoy the trophy for about an hour or so taking pictures, then cut that thing up and KEEP IT FOR YOURSELVES!!!!

+++++++++++++

On that thought, that wraps up the Zany part of the Wombat Zone, and so now on to this week's picks:

Denver at MARYLAND (#7) - [5] - Denver doesn't play well near sea level. Terps roll, 10, Pioneers 5.

Loyola at DURHAM ACADEMY (#1) - [7] - DA oils up for the slip and slide through the tourney. Not quite a repeat of the 21-8 score. DA 14, Loyola 7.

Ohio State at CORNELL (#8) - [4] - Big Red a knocking and want Durham next week at Cornell. Revenge already being tasted. Cornell 12, Ohio State 7.

Navy at NORTH CAROLINA (#4) - [2] - Dogfight, and a repeat of last year. Ugh. Possible OT, but I see UNC in a squeaker. Tar Heels 6, Mids 5.

COLGATE at Notre Dame (#6) - [1] - Picking an upset since Gate is on a roll. Colgate 7, Notre Dame 6.

Hofstra at JOHNS HOPKINS (#5) - [6] - Petro 1, Seth 1, here is the rubber match for all the marbles. Hopkins 9, Hofstra 8, quite possibly in OT.

Univ. MD Balt County at VIRGINIA (#2) - [3] - No repeat of last year. This will be tougher, but Cavs should get some faceoffs. UVA 10, UMBC 8. Pucker time.

Canisius at SYRACUSE (#3) - [8] - Cuse in a cakewalk. Oh, Canisius, can't you see? Here's the exit. Cuse 19, Canisius 6.

Have a great week. Come on Durham Academy players, sharpen up that CHAINSAW!!!! It could be the Foxboro Trophy Chainsaw Massacre!!!! Woohoo! Bring it on!

Vroom! Vroom! BRRRRR!!!!. Watch the sawdust fly!

--Wombat
"Alone at the Bottom" and "Over the Top!"

The Swami's Top 16
(May 8, 2008)

1. Duke

2. Virginia

3. Syracuse

4. North Carolina

5. Johns Hopkins

6. Maryland

7. Cornell

8. Notre Dame

9. Ohio State

10. Georgetown

11. UMBC

12. Colgate

13. Navy

14. Hofstra

15. Denver

16. Loyola

USILA Coaches' Poll

Division I--May 5, 2008--Week 11
Rank	Team	Record	Points	Previous Week
1	Duke	16-1	200 (10)	1
2	Virginia	12-3	189	3
3	Syracuse	12-2	181	2
4	Johns Hopkins	7-5	167	5
5	Notre Dame	13-2	159	6
6	UMBC	12-3	141	7
7	Cornell	11-3	138	8
8	Maryland	9-5	122	9
9	North Carolina	8-5	116	10
10	Colgate	11-5	113	12
11	Georgetown	9-4	89	4
12	Ohio State	10-5	86	13
13	Brown	11-3	65	19
14	Navy	9-5	62	15
15	Drexel	13-4	57	11
16	Hofstra	9-5	48	NR
17	Denver	10-6	46	20
18	Loyola	7-6	43	17
19	Army	9-6	26	18
20	Princeton	7-6	24	14
Others Receiving Votes: Bucknell, Albany, Penn

Baltimore Sun Poll
MAY 7, 2008

No.	Team	Previous
1	Duke	1
2	Virginia	3
3	Syracuse	2
4	Notre Dame	4
5	Johns Hopkins	5
6	UMBC	7
7	Cornell	8
8	Maryland	9
9	Colgate	11
10	Drexel	6
11	Georgetown	10
12	Bucknell	12
13	Loyola	13
14	North Carolina	18
15	Navy	15
16	Brown	16
17	Ohio State	17
18	Hofstra	19
19	Army	14
20	Princeton	20

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